In 1995, Republicans had a lot of reasons to be optimistic. They swept the House and Senate from the Democrats, and won many gubernatorial contests. Bill Clinton's approval ratings were below 50 percent. Their front-runner, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, was leading Clinton in the polls, making the cover of TIME magazine.
So why did it all go south for the Republicans? And why should they be worried about a repeat performance haunting them this holiday season?
Like the 2012 primary season, a lot of Republicans lined up to take on a Democratic President. You had a mix of candidates considered too conservative (Pat Buchanan, Bob Dornan), not conservative enough (Richard Lugar, Lamar Alexander), those with a lot of business experience, without a lot of political experience (Steve Forbes), an conservative African-American candidate who never held elected office (Alan Keyes) or just plain uninspiring (like Dole and Phil Gramm).
Sure enough, a mixed bag of candidates produced a mixed bag of results in the state caucuses and primaries. Pat Buchanan won the Alaska caucuses, then dispatched Gramm in Louisiana. Dole limped to a victory in the Iowa Caucuses, but Buchanan upset him and Alexander in New Hampshire about a week later. Then Forbes charged onto the scene, knocking off Buchanan in Arizona and Dole in Delaware.
At that point, Dole was forced to open up his wallet and empty his campaign treasury. Sure enough it produced results, as he was able to finish off the others in the subsequent contests, winning every state except for Missouri (which Buchanan took). But it left him broke against the well-funded Clinton. And while the GOP candidates tore each other apart, Clinton gave his positive pep talks across the country, providing a more appealing alternative to the exhausted and embittered Dole, linked to the dwindling popularity of Newt Gingrich.
Will history repeat itself? You have some candidates considered too conservative (Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann), not conservative enough (Libertarian Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman), someone with a lot of business experience but a thin political resume (Mitt Romney), and even a conservative African-American candidate for a time (Herman Cain). All have leap-frogged each other in the polls, with inconclusive results.
Imagine what would happen if Paul wins the Iowa Caucuses, Romney prevails in New Hampshire, and Gingrich takes South Carolina, with everyone bunched together for Florida. Meanwhile, Barack Obama borrows a page from the Clinton playbook, and puts a positive spin on things while the Republican nominee emerges bloody and broke. That's a Ghost of Christmas Past that would scare any Republican as we head into the nomination season.
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